SpaceX is preparing one of the biggest IPOs in history. But here the question isn’t just whether SpaceX is a spectacular company — we already analyzed that in the previous video on the numbers and the valuation. The important question is: what could happen when it starts trading, and at what price will you actually be able to buy? Because the official IPO price is one thing, and the price at which you can get in as a retail investor is a very different one.
The numbers of the offering
According to the published information, SpaceX plans to sell roughly 555.6 million shares at 135 dollars per share. That implies raising close to 75 billion dollars and a valuation of around 1.77 trillion dollars. The expected ticker would be SPCX, trading on the Nasdaq.
Who can buy in the IPO?
Here’s a very interesting part: SPCX would be reserving up to 30% of the offering for the retail investor. For an IPO, that’s a huge amount — most offerings reserve very little or nothing for retail, because almost everything goes to institutions, funds or preferred clients. In this case they want retail investors to have a bigger presence.
But careful, that doesn’t mean everyone will be able to access the IPO. If demand is brutal, there can be pro-rata allocations, small allocations or simply no allocation at all for you.
The ETF factor: “forced” demand
This is one of the most important points. SpaceX isn’t entering as a small company: with these valuations, from day one it could already be among the largest companies in the world. Will the indexes and ETFs have to include it? The short answer: some might have to before others.
- Nasdaq 100 — the Nasdaq has changed the rules so that certain mega-IPOs enter much faster. There’s talk of a possible inclusion after about 15 days of trading if it meets the criteria. If it enters, ETFs like the QQQ would have to buy shares to replicate the index
- S&P 500 — doesn’t seem as willing to speed up its rules. It wouldn’t enter automatically: it would have to meet listing, earnings and eligibility requirements
Three scenarios for the first day
What could happen at the open
Total euphoria — it comes out at 135 for those allocated and opens much higher; the market tries to chase it. Happens if there’s huge demand and little paper
Initial rise and reversal — it opens strong, the first ones get excited, but some of those allocated in the IPO sell to lock in a quick profit. Very common in hyped IPOs (and SpaceX is pure hype)
Disappointment — if the price comes out too demanding, if tech keeps correcting or if the market looks more at the losses than at the story, it can be weaker than expected
SpaceX isn’t arriving at just any moment: it shows up after weeks of pullbacks in some tech stocks, especially AI, semiconductors and data centers. This IPO can be almost a thermometer of the appetite for AI risk.
The deals with Google and Anthropic, right before the IPO
And here comes one of the most curious parts of recent days. Conveniently, right before the IPO, huge computing deals appear:
- Google reportedly agreed to pay SpaceX about 920 million dollars a month for computing capacity, from October 2026 to June 2029
- Anthropic would pay roughly 1.25 billion a month for access to xAI’s Colossus data centers, until May 2029
These two deals change the narrative: without them, the AI part looks like a money-burning machine; with them, that valuation is better justified.
The question stays open: are these really long-term contracts, or news placed right before the IPO to inflate the narrative?
Conclusion
What’s going public here isn’t just a company: it’s a story. And when Wall Street buys stories, be careful, because the premium usually comes well loaded. For the European retail investor, the most likely thing is not being able to get into the IPO and having to wait for the first day of trading, where volatility will rule. Between the 30% reserved for retail, the possible ETF effect and the deals with Google and Anthropic, there are a lot of pieces in play. As always, this is not investment advice, just analysis. If you want to follow the market with a professional platform connected to Interactive Brokers, there’s ProRealTime.
